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股票如何精准抄底

什么是熊市(Bear Market)?

陳涵書

大摩:现在是熊市!削减香港/中国股票指数目标价,只买防御性股票

【摘要】We identify defensive HK/China stocks, and stocks to avoid in a bear market post our HK/China index target price reductions and MS FX team's USD stronger-for-longer view.

We recently cut our HK/China equity index targets and are now forecasting a bear market. Our house FX view is that CNY weakens further near term to Rmb6.65/USD by 3Q18. We believe it is important to identify: 1) stock names that are defensive and likely to outperform the Hang Seng index as the market faces further downside risks (Exhibit 1); and 2) HK/China stocks that investors should avoid in a USD strengthening and/or US-China trade negotiation uncertainty scenario (Exhibit 2). We have also surveyed Morgan Stanley's HK/China research 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? team on how individual sectors are likely to perform as bear market plays out.

The Defensive list is concentrated on defensive sectors with HKD revenue such as Telecom and Utilities as well 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? as defensive HK property players (landlords an REITs).

The To Avoid list is concentrated on stocks with debt and/or other costs denominated in USD, limited revenue exposure in HKD or other currencies that are relatively stable vs. USD, and/or that are susceptible to further US China trade negotiation uncertainty.

We have also screened for stocks that investors should try to avoid in a bear market.

These stocks often meet one or more of the following criteria: 1) higher volatility in terms of beta relative to the market (Hang Seng index); 2) sizeable revenue exposure to CNY (weakening against USD) or cost exposure to USD; 3) subject to US China trade dispute, which has a lot of near-term uncertainty, etc.

这些股票通常符合以下一个或多个标准:1)更高的波动性; 2)相当可观的收入风险人民币(兑美元走弱)或美元成本风险; 3)受美国中国贸易影响

In recent years, Hang Seng has become far more dependent on RMB earnings streams with around 60% of earnings derived from China currently. However, it is a HKD- and therefore USD-pegged index. Periods of RMB weakness vs. USD (as in 2015 and early 2016) are therefore associated with bear markets in Hang Seng, whilst periods of RMB

strength vs. USD (from mid-2016 until recently) are associated with bull markets (see Exhibit 10). CNY has begun to move markedly lower against the USD in recent trading, tracking generalised weakness in China's trade partner currencies (EM and Euro in particular). Potential further downside risks to the CNY include a more hawkish Fed, somewhat more accommodative PBOC (which did not raise rates after the last Fed move) and trade tensions between the US and China.

近年来,恒生已越来越依赖人民币,目前中国约有60%的收入来自中国。 但是,它是HKD-和因此美元挂钩指数。 人民币兑美元汇率走弱的时期(2015年及早期)因此,2016)与恒生的熊市有关,而人民币期间则相关

实力与美元(从2016年中期到最近)与牛市相关(见图表10)。 近期交易中,人民币兑美元汇率开始明显走低,追踪中国贸易伙伴货币的普遍疲软(新兴市场和欧元区)特定)。 人民币潜在的进一步下行风险包括更加强硬的美联储,更加宽松的中国人民银行(在上一次美联储之后没有加息)移动)和中美之间的贸易紧张局势。

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熊市來了投資人容易嗎?財星雜誌給投資人的3個建議

陳涵書

今年 S&P 500 指數已經下跌超過 18%,Fortune 近期發佈一篇報導「熊市來了如何投資?」,文中說明,熊市並不是世界末日,股票市場漲漲跌跌只是常態。自 1945 年以來,S&P 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? 500 經歷了 14 次的熊市,也就是平均每 5.4 年就會遇到一次大跌。績效好的投資人知道,熊市來了其實不用驚慌,甚至是個難得的機會。

建議 1:堅守符合財務目標的長期投資計畫

回看過去幾年,在股市賺錢似乎不是難事,2021 年以前,S&P 500 指數的平均年化報酬率約14.7%。這個績效讓許多剛投入市場的投資人漸漸忘記了紀律。

建議 2:避免擇時進出市場

Fortune 報導說明,回看歷史,一般投資人在熊市時退場,使得他們無法讓資產報酬最大化。事實上,定期定額投資基本面穩固的股票,比擇時進出更為理想。「你都沒有賣在最高點了,你又怎麼知道自己可以買在最低點?」一位受訪的理財顧問 Emerson Ham 說自己三十多年的職業生涯中,從來沒看過有人能透過擇時讓資產持續增加。

建議 3:熊市挑股票要重視現金流跟定價能力

《商益》主張「商業是最大的公益」,報導專注於讓讀者理解資本力量、商業本質以及財經語言。歡迎加入 Discord 社群,並免費訂閱 Substack 電子報。

股市的升與跌:「牛市」與「熊市」的由來

至於「熊市」的由來,據說來自一句古老的英文諺語「Sell the bear’s skin before one has caught the bear」,18世紀的歐洲,一些賣熊皮的商人,往往在未有捕獵到熊時。已經把熊皮提早賣出,承諾在獲得熊皮時以一個特定價格與買家交易,不過他們早就預計到熊皮市場會跌市,所以預先出售熊皮,購取暴利。「熊市」一詞由何時開始廣為人知,就要數到 1720 年英國「 南海泡沫事件」(South Sea Bubble)以後了。

牛亦代表力量與勇氣

股民都愛牛牛,在美國紐約華爾街附近的鮑林格林公園,有一個名叫「奔牛」(Charging Bull)的銅牛雕塑。這頭「奔牛」是由是意大利藝術家Arturo Di Modica,於1987年10月19日的「黑色星期一」股災後創作的,代表美國人的力量與勇氣;現時這頭銅牛已變成當地的地標,更有指遊客用手觸摸牛角,會帶來好運。

外汇市场的熊市牛市是什么意思?

在昨天播出的《USG联准观察》节目中,USG联准国际讲师Atilio Bertoldi为了更好的帮助交易者了解账户状态,与观众分享了在使用MT4/MT5时的常见用语,以及在市场上实际能运用的金额。 为.